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and the undisputed prince of the hard sell in television advertising

Snus and nicotine pouches can cause mouth or nose pain, sores, and burning gums Vapes can damage the lungs and make it harder to breathe Cigarettes can cause lots of heart and lung issues, hugely increase the chance of getting many cancers and lead to other serious health problems

In summary, here are all the key assumptions in our model: -2% decline in traditional tobacco ex-menthol 50% drop in US menthol brand sales in 2026 driven by US ban 25% growth in smoke-free products near term, stepping down to 12% by 2030 40% incremental margins in smoke-free products 51% operating margins in combustibles, falling to 44% over time due to menthol ban and 60% decremental margins 11x terminal PE ratio in 2030 justified by the 35% revenue share of non-combustibles and 2% profit growth in that year