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Applying Bayess rule, we have odds(smoker | cancer) = odds(smoker) * p(cancer | smoker) / p(cancer | non-smoker) Rearranging terms, we can solve for the risk ratio: p(cancer | smoker) / p(cancer | non-smoker) = odds(smoker | cancer) / odds(smoker) = 16 Thats the answer I had in mind, but let me address an objection raised by one poll respondent, who chose Other because, You cant draw casual inferences from observational data without certain assumptions which Im unwilling to make. Thats true

Well, except for those poor hornworms that morph into bird food and, well, thats just the cycle of life

Chewing Tobacco and Cancer Smoking is linked most often to problems with lung cancer

10.1093/toxsci/kfx257 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] Zuluaga-Ramirez V, Rom S, Persidsky Y, 2015

The FDA noted the scientific review of menthol e-cigarettes, as opposed to other non-tobacco flavored e-cigarettes, raises unique considerations. While menthol products were not included in Thursdays decision, the FDAs evaluation of those applications will consider the same question: Does the benefit to adult users outweigh the risk to youth?